Current recession update
Is the recession still on or out? This question ahs been lurking for a while now and the latest analysis shows greater deflation has been observed on an annual basis. According to researched statistics, the August-October 2009 period shows a decline in the CPI of up to -1.5%. The November and December period, also the festive season, shows a seasonal bias that runs negative (-.1 and -.2). These monthly CPI analysis readings are indicative of a deflationary recession.
Economists believe that the phase will most certainly last till the turn of 2009. The Kasriel indicator declares that positive real M1 money supply and the sloping yield curve for 12 months coincide with recoveries that usher in a breather. The updated graph of the Kasriel indicator is predictive of the recovery vs. recession statistics in positive light. The associated economic scenario and anemic recovery are expected to last till the first half of 2010 in many countries.